top of page
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Spotify
  • Apple Music
Search

Statistical Analysis of the 2023 Fantasy Football Season

Writer: Chinmay Bharathulwar
Chinmay Bharathulwar
Jan 18, 2024
3 min read

In this analysis, we will delve into the fantasy football points of the top players for the 2023 season across five positions: Tight Ends (TE), Running Backs (RB), Quarterbacks (QB), Wide Receivers (WR), and Defense/Special Teams (DST). We will use statistical methods to understand the performance and variability of these players.

Data Extraction

First, we extracted the fantasy points of the top 5 players in each position from the charts.

Top 5 Fantasy TE Players in 2023

  1. Sam LaPorta (DET): 155 points

  2. George Kittle (SF): 140 points

  3. Travis Kelce (KC): 130 points

  4. T.J. Hockenson (MIN): 125 points

  5. David Njoku (CLE): 120 points

Top 5 Fantasy RB Players in 2023

  1. Christian McCaffrey (SF): 310 points

  2. Raheem Mostert (MIA): 280 points

  3. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC): 260 points

  4. Kyren Williams (LAR): 250 points

  5. Derrick Henry (BAL): 240 points

Top 5 Fantasy QB Players in 2023

  1. Josh Allen (BUF): 400 points

  2. Jalen Hurts (PHI): 380 points

  3. Dak Prescott (DAL): 360 points

  4. Lamar Jackson (BAL): 340 points

  5. Jordan Love (GB): 320 points

Top 5 Fantasy WR Players in 2023

  1. CeeDee Lamb (DAL): 250 points

  2. Tyreek Hill (MIA): 240 points

  3. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): 230 points

  4. Mike Evans (TB): 220 points

  5. Puka Nacua (LAR): 210 points

Top 5 Fantasy DST Players in 2023

  1. Dallas Cowboys (DAL): 175 points

  2. Baltimore Ravens (BAL): 165 points

  3. Buffalo Bills (BUF): 160 points

  4. New York Jets (NYJ): 155 points

  5. Cleveland Browns (CLE): 150 points

Statistical Analysis

Mean and Standard Deviation

To understand the average performance and how much the performance varied among the top players, we calculate the mean and standard deviation of the fantasy points.

  • Mean (Average): This gives us the average points scored by the top players in each position. It's calculated by adding up all the points and then dividing by the number of players (5 in this case).

  • Standard Deviation: This tells us how spread out the points are from the mean. A higher standard deviation means the points are more spread out, indicating more variability in performance.

TE:

  • Mean: 1(55+140+130+125+120)/5=134

  • Standard Deviation:

Explanation: The average fantasy points for the top 5 TEs is 134. The standard deviation of 13.67 shows that most TE scores were within 13.67 points of this average. This indicates moderate variability in TE performances.

RB:

  • Mean: (310+280+260+250+240)/5=268

  • Standard Deviation:

Explanation: The average fantasy points for the top 5 RBs is 268. The standard deviation of 25.10 indicates that RB scores were more spread out compared to TEs, showing higher variability in RB performances.

QB:

  • Mean: (400+380+360+340+320)/5=360

  • Standard Deviation:

Explanation: The average fantasy points for the top 5 QBs is 360. The standard deviation of 28.28 suggests significant variability in QB performances, meaning some QBs performed much better or worse than the average.

WR:

  • Mean: (250+240+230+220+210)/5=230

  • Standard Deviation:

Explanation: The average fantasy points for the top 5 WRs is 230. The standard deviation of 15.81 indicates moderate variability in WR performances.

DST:

  • Mean: (175+165+160+155+150)/5=161

  • Standard Deviation:

Explanation: The average fantasy points for the top 5 DSTs is 161. The standard deviation of 8.60 shows low variability, meaning most DSTs scored close to the average.


We examined how the fantasy points of different positions relate to each other using the Pearson correlation coefficient r. This coefficient measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two sets of data.

Correlation Coefficient (r): The value of ranges from -1 to 1.

  • An r value of 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship, meaning that as one variable increases, the other also increases proportionally.

  • An r  value of -1 indicates a perfect negative relationship, meaning that as one variable increases, the other decreases proportionally.

  • An r value of 0 indicates no linear relationship between the variables.

Let's calculate the Pearson correlation coefficient for the fantasy points of TEs and RBs.


The Pearson correlation coefficient ris given by:


where:

  • xi and xi(bar)​ are the individual data points of two variables x and y.

  • x‾ and y‾​ are the means of the variables x and y.


First, calculate the means of the TE and RB fantasy points.

We did this above

TE mean was 134

RB mean was 268


Next, we compute the numerator and the denominator of the Pearson correlation formula.


Numerator:


Breaking it down:

Denominator:





Combining these, the denominator is:


Finally, calculate r:

r=1540/1540=1

Explanation: A correlation coefficient of 1 means there's a perfect positive relationship between TE and RB fantasy points. If a TE scored high, the RBs in that same team also tended to score high.

Summary

  • Mean Fantasy Points:

  • TE: 134 points

  • RB: 268 points

  • QB: 360 points

  • WR: 230 points

  • DST: 161 points

  • Standard Deviation:

  • Highest for QBs (28.28), indicating the most variability in performance.

  • Lowest for DSTs (8.60), indicating more consistent performance.

  • Correlation:

  • There is a perfect positive correlation between the top fantasy points for TEs and RBs.

This statistical analysis provides insights into the performance consistency and variability across different positions in the 2023 fantasy football season. Understanding these metrics can help in making informed decisions for future fantasy football strategies.

Comments

bottom of page